It’s September 4, 2025, and if you’ve been following bracket racing, you already know the name on everyone’s lips: Williams. Last weekend at the Fling in Norwalk, Donovan Williams nearly turned the staging lanes into his own personal ATM—winning the $5K Shootout, a $20K main event, finishing runner-up in a $50K, and locking up the points championship. It was the kind of week that leaves fellow racers shaking their heads and accountants scrambling for calculators.
And now? The Million is looming. If Donovan keeps this momentum and adds “Million winner” to the family trophy case, we’re forced to ask a ridiculous but oddly consistent question: is the economy doomed?
If Punxsutawney Phil had a cousin at the dragstrip, his name would probably be Williams. Every few years, a Williams pops out of the lanes, lays down perfect laps, and—purely coincidentally, we’re sure—the economy starts acting weird. Coincidence… or the motorsports version of a Groundhog Day omen?
The Williams Indicator: A Strange but Spooky History
Bracket racing has its share of superstitions—lucky socks, staging rituals, never cleaning the car after a win. But the Williams family may have created the ultimate omen, a kind of “Groundhog Day” for Wall Street.
- 1998 – Troy Williams Jr. wins the Million. Later that year, global markets were rattled by the Russian financial crisis and the collapse of hedge fund LTCM, which nearly dragged the U.S. banking system down with it. The next U.S. recession wasn’t far behind in 2001.
- 2004 – Gary Williams takes the Million. America was in the heart of a housing boom—what could go wrong? Fast forward just a few years, and the same bubble helped trigger the biggest crash in modern history.
- 2007 – Gary wins the Million again. Three months later, the Great Recession officially began. If the “Williams Indicator” has a poster child, this is it.
- 2010 – Gary named Driver of the Year. This one broke the pattern: the recession had ended the year before, and Gary’s dominance coincided with the start of a long, grinding recovery. A false alarm—or proof the omen only works with Million-dollar wins?
- 2020 – Troy Jr. wins NHRA Super Comp at the U.S. Nationals. Another curveball. The COVID recession had already come and gone earlier that spring, the shortest downturn in U.S. history. Instead of predicting doom, this win felt like a celebration of resilience.
- 2024–25 – Donovan catches fire. From his $50K win at GALOT in 2024 to his monster Norwalk weekend in 2025. Donovan has been cashing big checks against a backdrop of cooling inflation, higher interest rates, and plenty of economic uncertainty.
The Joke Writes Itself
Every time a Williams stacks up round wins at a big-money race, you can almost hear CNBC producers dialing in “breaking news” graphics. The superstition is too good to ignore: Williams = market wobble. It’s the drag racing version of the groundhog seeing his shadow.
Of course, the data isn’t perfect. For every 2007 “smoking gun” there’s a 2010 or 2020 to keep us honest. Still, if Donovan caps 2025 with a Million win, don’t be shocked if nervous investors start side-eyeing their 401(k)s between time slips.
Should We Be Worried?
Here’s the reality: the U.S. hasn’t had an official recession since 2020. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022, cooled steadily through 2024, and the economy—while bumpy—is still standing. Economists debate soft landings, hard landings, and no landings at all. Meanwhile, Donovan keeps staging up, hitting the tree, and turning on win lights.
So should we be worried? Maybe only if you’re in the other lane. But if history holds, and the Williams family adds another Million to their record, don’t be surprised if “The Williams Indicator” becomes the running joke of both bracket racing pits and Wall Street trading floors.
Until then, enjoy the show. The only thing truly doomed is anyone who has to line up against a Williams this fall.
See you at the next race
-Kline
